Will The Nation State of Pakistan Survive?

I know, I know…. I am not a political junkie, and some of my friends and acquaintances know a lot more about the geopolitics of South Asia than I can ever aspire to know, but let me just take a stab at this subject, to partially quench my intellectual curiosity. Of course blogs and social media are hardly the medium for such conversations; it has the tendency to provide a platform where animated discussions can quickly degenerate into a slugfest. But let me still take the plunge.

The title is of course eyeball grabbing, quite unintentionally though. That is however the nub of my story, if at all you may call this a story. So let me get to the point right away. If Pakistan continues its current trajectory, it may not last - not a few decades, not a few years, but not even two years. Yes, Pakistan as we know I suspect will cease to exist as a nation, for not a day more than 75 years since its birth, if trends were to be believed. And its demise may have nothing to do with a nuclear Armageddon, the most likely scenario painted this long by South Asia watchers. Pakistan may implode on the back of its own suicidal policies, and inherent contradictions – a perfect storm is brewing right now, right over Islamabad.

One of Pakistan’s biggest contradictions is its identity. A new nation, born hardly seventy odd years ago, has deliberately distanced itself from a 5,000-year old shared history, and culture with India, embracing instead a Sunni Muslim identity, with Saudi-style Wahabism at its core. While this may be seen as a rejection of some things Indian, it has also effectively rid itself of the identities of various sects, and religions in Pakistan. A country, where the military & religious establishment imposes a foreign identity on its people can never build self-esteem. In its quest for this national identity, it adopted a Lucknowi dialect called Urdu as its national language, but progressively distanced itself from the Mohajirs who brought that language from India to the Promised Land. This monotheistic approach has angered the Pashtuns and the Baluchis, the Mohajirs & the Sindhis, and the Shias and Ahmediyas. Nationalism is probably at a new low now.

Contradiction #2 is its policy on terror. Since the ‘80s, it has harbored and nurtured terrorists of every hue on its premise, and used terrorism as a state policy to wage wars against its enemies. Its terror factories supplied men to the frontlines in the Soviet War in Afghanistan, to the Americans fighting the Taliban, to Jordanians fighting the Lebanese, and of course to India in its quest for Kashmir. Those chickens are now coming home to roost, ravaging its own land, and killing citizens by the hundreds each year. Sunnis routinely kill Shias, both kill Ahmediyas, and all kill Hindus and Christians. The land of Mohen-Jo-Daro, one of the greatest civilizations this side of the world is now a veritable killing field. 

Contradiction #3 is religion. Pakistan was conceived as the home for the Muslims of South Asia. Israel was also conceived as the home for the Jews, with an open invite to any Jew from anywhere in the world to make Israel their home. Pakistan made no such promises. Today, Pakistan is just one of three states in South Asia that has a very large Islamic population, with Bangladesh and India being the other two. That these two states are doing much better than Pakistan on every UN human development index, is reflective of Pakistan’s own internal turmoil and lack of clarity as to where it stands on the Islamic ladder. If the OIC and other Islamic countries backed Pakistan from its inception until the early ‘00s, today’s Pakistan stands all alone. It is a pariah to most Islamic nations that are themselves making strides towards modernity; most do not wish to be seen on the same stage with Pakistan. 

These three contradictions are by themselves enough to fracture any nation, especially a relatively fledgling state like Pakistan. And if these were not enough, here are the ingredients to a perfect storm.

Pakistan is horribly broke. Exports have dipped, and foreign inflows, largely driven by repatriation by overseas Pakistanis have not picked up, obviously because no one wants to put his hard earned dollars in a bankrupt state. And the largesse that Pakistan could depend on – from the US, Saudi Arabia, and UAE are no longer forthcoming, and if they do, will come with unpalatable riders. It is believed that their reserves at under $10 billion is enough to barely meet three weeks of their import bill. This is precarious by any standard of measure.

There is an expensive military build up on its eastern border. The war of attrition with India is causing them serious financial harm. Pakistan has to move more troops, and spend far more on its military than anticipated to keep its border protected. An already financially and emotionally stretched state is now pretty close to a tear. The situation is similar to how USSR was during the late ‘80s as the Cold War was drawing to a hasty close; USA’s Star Wars program broke the back of a struggling Soviet Union, eventually leading to its disintegration, and a rejig on its Eastern Front.

The Afghanistan gauntlet has been thrown. USA is keen to disentangle itself from Afghanistan, and is working to have the Taliban and Pakistan work out a deal to seal the fate of that nation. Pakistan may be delighted that India has been kept out of this game, but that is not necessarily good news. The Taliban would want to rule the whole state and not be content with a few ministerial posts. The Ghani government is unlikely to give in, and the other tribes will use the vacuum to demand its pound of flesh. And there are enough India lovers in Afghanistan to scuttle any deal that Pakistan signs with the Taliban. This means that Pakistan may get increasingly entangled in a fratricidal war, requiring it to commit even more men and material to a very complex cause, at a time when it can ill afford to spare either.

America is not the milch cow it once was. America and its sister organizations, the World Bank and the IMF are no longer willing to lend to Pakistan, that uses most of the funds for repaying interests on old loans, and misuses whatever is remaining in the kitty. USA knows that Pakistan has double-crossed it for far too long, and with hardly any new money going towards development, there is no real incentive to lend. Yesterday’s friends of Pakistan are not willing to underwrite to a losing cause. That leaves Pakistan with just its old friend China, which incidentally will revel in such opportunities. There is much anger in Pakistan against the very high cost of China’s OBOR project – apart from lending money at very high interest rates, it employs Chinese labor and machinery, imposes a large security cost on the government, and insures itself from payment defaults by bartering for land.

Restive provinces are asserting themselves. There is a full-fledged, on-going armed struggle in Baluchistan, and the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement in the FATA is peacefully seeking more autonomy. All these are unnecessary distractions for the Pakistani administration, requiring it to commit even more defense dollars to keep the nation together.

There are curbs on the opposition and the media, while the judiciary is severely compromised. Prime Minister Imran Khan, whose own election was possibly rigged by the military, has imprisoned all his detractors. Former PM Nawaz Sharif was prosecuted and found guilty without due process of law. He & his daughter Miriam Nawaz are behind bars, and so are former President Asif Ali Zardari and former PM Abbasi; Gen Musharaf continues to live overseas, and likely to come back only if he is assured of immunity from prosecution for serious fraud and high treason. The media is censored heavily, and journalists are barred from covering any subject or event that can be inconvenient to the ruling establishment and the military.

So here you have it all – a broke country, restive provinces, serious threats on the eastern and western borders, friendless in the comity of nations, and wedded to the military and terrorists. Is there any way out? Likely not. If anything untoward were to happen in Pakistan, I suspect it will unravel very rapidly, giving China and US an opportunity to take over or administer a region of great strategic import. India of course will not be a mute observer.

But for it to stay as one nation, it has to quickly mend its ways. It may have to begin by ridding itself of the “Home of Terror” tag, genuinely distancing itself from the very terrorists and terrorist organizations it created; a tough ask indeed. It has to mend its ways with its neighbors. It has to prosecute those guilty of the Mumbai terror attacks, it has to jail acknowledged terrorists like Hafiz Sayyed, and make peace with India, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan by apologizing to them for its' past crimes. It must then focus its efforts on improving literacy (where Bangladesh has raced ahead), build democratic institutions, invest in human development, reduce the size of its military, and introduce a sustainable and functioning democracy. Yes, it truly takes a lot to become a modern, thriving state.

But those who have studied history and watched Pakistan for the last seven decades will say that these are near impossible tasks, steeped as it is, in a culture of lies and deceit, unrepentant of its past, and unwilling to look at truth in its eye. From our shared history, we know that its people are no different from ours, with the same set of aspirations as ours, and riding the same emotions that we ride. But a poor captain, on a leaky ship, on a stormy night, with no fuel can take his ship only as far as the nearest rock. Ironically, Pakistan’s best cricket captain is now the captain of this leaky ship. And a silhouette of that boulder is just about visible.